Back

MTL
3-5
BUF
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
MTL xG0.71
BUF xG0.74
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
MTL Win%0.4
BUF Win%99.6
3 Spikes
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
MTL Deserve45.4%
BUF Deserve54.6%
BUF Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
54.0%Possession46.0%
23Shots on Goal27
58.9%Faceoff Win %41.1%
26Hits21
7Blocked Shots18
4Takeaways6
14Giveaways15
12Penalty Minutes10




















