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BUF
4-2
MTL
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
BUF xG0.68
MTL xG0.97
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
BUF Win%99.6
MTL Win%0.4
5 Spikes
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
BUF Deserve50.4%
MTL Deserve49.6%
BUF Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
42.7%Possession57.3%
17Shots on Goal34
35.7%Faceoff Win %64.3%
26Hits28
17Blocked Shots20
5Takeaways3
9Giveaways12
10Penalty Minutes8



















