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TBL
4-5
CAR
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
TBL xG0.99
CAR xG0.98
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
TBL Win%24.3
CAR Win%75.7
1 Spike
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
TBL Deserve48.0%
CAR Deserve52.0%
CAR Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
51.3%Possession48.7%
28Shots on Goal33
55.4%Faceoff Win %44.6%
15Hits23
17Blocked Shots21
6Takeaways7
20Giveaways20
4Penalty Minutes4






















