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BUF
5-1
PIT
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
BUF xG0.98
PIT xG1.03
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
BUF Win%99.6
PIT Win%0.4
3 Spikes
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
BUF Deserve58.8%
PIT Deserve41.2%
BUF Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
53.8%Possession46.2%
26Shots on Goal28
59.6%Faceoff Win %40.4%
20Hits18
13Blocked Shots15
3Takeaways2
13Giveaways17
12Penalty Minutes25


















