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STL
3-1
CAR
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
STL xG0.45
CAR xG1.15
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
STL Win%99.6
CAR Win%0.4
2 Spikes
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
STL Deserve48.9%
CAR Deserve51.1%
CAR Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
36.2%Possession63.8%
17Shots on Goal32
50.0%Faceoff Win %50.0%
18Hits16
12Blocked Shots11
5Takeaways7
16Giveaways11
4Penalty Minutes2


















