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MTL
1-6
CAR
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
MTL xG0.87
CAR xG0.90
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
MTL Win%0.4
CAR Win%99.6
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
MTL Deserve45.5%
CAR Deserve54.5%
CAR Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
42.1%Possession57.9%
24Shots on Goal30
52.8%Faceoff Win %47.2%
11Hits18
13Blocked Shots5
3Takeaways7
10Giveaways18
10Penalty Minutes10























