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VGK
2-4
CAR
Final
xG Story-Flow
Momentum Graph
VGK xG1.04
CAR xG0.90
Away
0
60
Predictive Model · Logistic Regression
Chance To Win
Logistic decay model · Score weight × time / xG merit · starts 50%
VGK Win%0.4
CAR Win%99.6
1 Spike
Merit Engine · Performance Percentiles
Deserve-To-Win
Advanced merit tracking: Shots, Blocked Shots, Hits, Giveaways/Takeaways, and Penalties weighted into a unified "Deserve %".
VGK Deserve44.2%
CAR Deserve55.8%
CAR Merit Lead
Positional Density
Shot Distribution
Goal
High Danger (≥ 8%)
Med Danger (3.5% - 8%)
Low Danger (< 3.5%)
Team Dominance
Matchup
54.0%Possession46.0%
25Shots on Goal24
41.5%Faceoff Win %58.5%
32Hits34
14Blocked Shots18
2Takeaways6
15Giveaways17
10Penalty Minutes6




















